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Traditionally, the third quarter is supposed to be the "golden peak season" for exports to the US route. However, this year, the China-Us route has witnessed an abnormal situation of "a lackluster peak season". Ocean freight rates have plunged significantly, and traders' enthusiasm for exports has cooled down markedly. The market is undergoing a complex adjustment interwoven by demand, policies and purchasing power.
Freight rates have plummeted, experiencing a "cliff-like" decline during peak seasons
Although some shipping companies attempted to raise prices in the middle and late July, the price increase plans were difficult to be implemented due to the persistently low volume of cargo. The "hot" market conditions of the traditional peak season are absent, and the market shows a distinct feature of "no peak season".
Behind the decline in freight rates lies the dual pressure of overdrawn demand and policy disturbances
The rush to transport goods has been prematurely exhausted, and the peak season demand has "come to an early end".
In the first half of the year, due to concerns over the adjustment of the US tariff policy, traders launched a wave of "rush shipping", with a large number of goods being dispatched in a concentrated manner, directly depleting the market demand for the second half of the year. Even in the traditional peak season of the third quarter, the market shipment volume remains sluggish. The original peak season situation may have been released in advance in the first half of the year.
Tariff policies have become a "barometer", and market confidence has been repeatedly undermined
The impact of the US tariff policy on exporters continues to intensify: despite the easing of the tariff policy in May, the volume of goods dropped immediately in June, and market confidence failed to recover effectively. In the first quarter of this year, US retailers rushed to ship goods to avoid tariff risks, and the volume of goods decreased again in June, further intensifying market concerns over the uncertainty of policy directions.
The consumption power in the United States has declined, and inflationary pressure has weakened import demand
As the world's largest consumer market, the consumption capacity of the United States directly affects shipping demand. Data shows that the US consumer price index (CPI) rose to 2.7% in June, reaching a four-month high. The upward pressure on imported goods prices has increased, and inflation risks have become more prominent. The restricted purchasing power of consumers, coupled with the rising import costs, has indirectly weakened the willingness of exporters to ship.
Tariffs set the tone, and the game between transportation capacity and demand continues
Short-term games focus on two key points
The tariff details in August will be the "decisive factor" : If the final tariff rate is higher than expected, the volume of goods on the US line may further shrink. If the policy is eased, it is expected to trigger a market replenishment wave and boost demand in the short term.
The effect of capacity regulation remains to be observed. If shipping companies continue to withdraw vessels on a large scale and reduce capacity, freight rates may experience a temporary rebound. However, the core issue of insufficient cargo volume support remains unresolved, and the sustainability of the rebound is questionable.
The "cooling down during the peak season" of the US export market is no accident, but rather the result of the combined effect of overdrawn demand, policy uncertainty and the decline in consumption power. In the coming period, the direction of tariff policies will become the core variable determining the market trend, while the regulation of transportation capacity and the pace of US consumption recovery will further affect whether freight rates can emerge from the slump. For traders and shipping enterprises, closely monitoring policy signals and market dynamics will be the key to dealing with the current complex situation.
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